Wednesday, April 27, 2005

There's A Sequel Outside My Window Can I Have A Glass Of Water?

Will It Be The One? finally, after years of obsessing, a Star Wars Movie worth the fanaticism?

A Remake the time and money of watching?

A Hollywood Reworking that doesn't dissapoint traditional fans?

A Movie I'll Enjoy Watching that isn't Sci-Fi?

Something that was acutally Thought-Provoking?

Now to make a few button plans...
Oh, And Hi To Jenna. Coming up to 1000 page views soon, when I make it, I'll, hmm... change the design again. maybe find a barrel of oil to put on it. posted by Keegan at 4:59 pm ... 0 comments

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Monday, April 25, 2005

NYMEX Sweet Light ^ 55.39

Couple of Things Today, crucially;

President's Oil Discussions with Saudi Arabia

U.S. House Passes Energy Bill

Refinery Jitters

The suggestion being that the actions being taken by the President and the House of Representatives are more about Oil security, not Energy security. What's the Difference?

Oil Security, is limited to the short term, provided peak oil theory is correct - as it was in the 1970's, when Hubbert predicted accurately the decline of US Production. There is a limit as to how far the price of oil can drop, because demand is rising faster than supply, even with the action being taken on the Hill, and by the White House.

Energy Security? It's about retaining energy supply, where oil isn't the only source of energy used. If (and this is the key IF) alternative sources of energy can be found to replace Gasoline and Heating Oil, then Crude Oil will not be needed to fuel energy demands.

So, what's the big deal if the House Bill passes? It's another year that the U.S. government is delaying investment in alternatives, Energy Security that will last beyond the potential reserves in the Alaskan Reserves, and the potential reserves that may be found through Deep Sea Drilling in the Mexican Gulf.

In Keegan News:
I'm looking at a few of the committees in the U.S. Congress which I might be able to work for if I score that intern gig. In particular, the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality, which provided the bulk of the work for the bill that's in the news. If this one gets nailed by another Senate Filibuster, I could end up working on a revised one next year. we'll wait and see though, won't we? posted by Keegan at 5:50 pm ... 0 comments

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Saturday, April 23, 2005

Karma And Public Transport

Today's Gripe is with City Rail, for those ticket officers rolling bums like me for $200. A whole lot of negative karma could have been produced, but I've decided to use my energies for constructive purposes in the form of an Ebay Auction for Good Karma. There's no point fighting City Hall, and all the genius excuses I've been thinking of now won't help me 6 hours ago when I could've suceeded in avoiding the fine. So instead, I'm going to try and sell some Karma to you or someone you know. I've already got Linz down bidding for $1, which'll just about cover postage that I won't have to do because I can just hand the ticket to him next time I see him. So if you need Karma, and Hate Tickets, Take a trip to this Link. posted by Keegan at 11:34 am ... 0 comments

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Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Throw Oneself Into One's Works

There's a whole pile of study to do, and if not that, then some oil research. There's still breakfast to be had this early. Yet here I am, my *cough* secret little window to the world, trying to avoid talking about women troubles, reading about the U.S. government's stepping up of ethanol production about to be pushed through in the latest energy bill. It's a nice day, there's a thousand beautiful women who walk past my kitchen everyday, and i'm hungry enough to want to finish this post quickly so i can get breakfast.

SO, in trading yesterday, dipped below $50/bbl, though it was back over by the end of the day, though not so much over as to rise over the previous days' price. the thing is, that that's a two month low. Which I'm guessing, guessing now, means that it's matching the pump price in febuary, which i'm sure was in the high 90's. Which is fortunate, because the current job is delayed till they get a new bar manager.

Anyway, I'm going to go get breakfast, and stop thinking about pink elephants. posted by Keegan at 9:07 am ... 0 comments

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Thursday, April 14, 2005

50.22 NYMEX LIGHT - It's Where The Flavour Is

Exxon's Cepu deposit in central Java may have hold about 500 million barrels of oil, according to the energy ministry. The field could produce 170,000 barrels a day, Budiono, vice president for exploration at Exxon's Indonesian unit, told a parliamentary hearing on Feb. 17.

That's 8 years of maximum production from this field, the daily production being a third of the last increase in daily production from OPEC. or to put it another way, the entire field would cover current consuption for just under 6 days.

The investment in Alberta's oil sands comes as China seeks to secure sources of crude globally, as its thirst for energy grows and outstrips its domestic production. At the moment, MEG is producing 3,000 barrels a day from a pilot project south of Fort McMurray, Alta., using in situ technology where steam is injected underground to melt tar-like bitumen, which is then pumped to the surface.

do you remember the beverly hillbillies? when that gusher popped out of the ground? it's
harder to get that easy oil now, at least outside of OPEC. got to wonder at what point will it take more energy to produce a barrel of oil than the level energy it provides. posted by Keegan at 9:11 am ... 0 comments

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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

51.86 - There's Only One Left

da ting be, I keep running into this habit of believing predictions. keep doing that, and you might as well say "screw it" and sit around waiting for the millenium bug and the second coming of Jee-bus. Tracking the price in recent days (US$7 swing down in just one week), I still believe it is underpriced not for trading purposes, but for future planning purposes. I'd love to see the bowser price dip under an AU$1, but that's out of student greed.

The price dip today, a whopping US$1.85, is being attributed to three things-

1) US stockpile is building sufficently (so oil isn't scarce enough just yet)
2) Saudi production is increasing (supply grows)
3) Chinese consumption is slowing (demand weakens)

There's still underlying causes though - demand is weakening, not declining. Demand will continue to rise until an alternative energy source overtakes oil. Supply has a roof - once production is engaged fully, the producers won't be able to increase production to stabilise price hikes. A demand controlled market for a scarce resource? that'll be pretty.

Imagine four big men - U.S., E.U., R.F. and China - all dying for a Big Mac - And There's Only One Left. posted by Keegan at 8:45 pm ... 0 comments

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Sunday, April 10, 2005

The Recent Spike

woah, $58.42 a Barrel. Though that was a couple of days ago, till Greenspan came out and said hold up, the shit ain't worth that much. It should cost double though, If you sift through the rest of the comments, and Goldman Sach's $105 guesstimate, there's a pretty good reasoning, kinda goes like;

If oil is cheap, then people buy SUVs and more oil is needed, then it gets wasted on SUVs. If it is Expensive, then people will seriously consider more fuel-efficient cars, and less oil will be needed. The doubling of the price of a barrel in the last year hasn't seemed to be enough to cause this reaction, though SUV sales have dropped and Hybrid cars still sell like hot-cakes (minus those piss-weak little cars, the ones that look like an umbrella over a scooter). The idea of US$105/bbl (Barrel) is to make it too expensive to run an SUV like it was a normal car.

The other bold prediction which I'm waiting to see is that at US$52/bbl, the price will halt the fall from the high reached earlier in the week, because there's enough support at that price. and to think six years ago it was US$10/bbl.

I'm slightly concerned though, as my place of residence makes it a bit difficult to get to uni without my V6 station wagon, and boy is it a fat tub of lard. Great for the coast, especially when you're living with your parents and need a bit of private space with female company occasionally, but in the city when you've got your own place? pfft. Now how to turn it into a fuel efficient 'sik' beast worthy of a personalised numberplate without spending any more money than I can get for the big one... and it's got to be done while potential buyers aren't concerned that the price of fuel'll hit AU$2/litre. Yeah, that's right americans. work it out. we're paying $1.10/litre now. I'm downloading atm, and on dial-up that means one slow browser window at the same time, which is why I'm wasting time on my blog. but roughly means we're paying about US$1/gallon more than you are. Damn SUVs. Tax that ass if the price isn't big enough to change your behaviour. posted by Keegan at 3:51 pm ... 0 comments

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Sunday, April 03, 2005

Bloody Dial-up

I'd just spent half an hour on a blog entry and then no dice! error publishing, and it's all gone. i'd got to peace with some critical issues, and now pfft. oh well. MC LARS - Mr. Raven rocks, and that's the main thing. and I'm pissed off that I can't enjoy Missy Higgins, cos she's really cool and the music's great, only she's singing about all the depressing things I've gone through, like 10 Days and The Special Two, and man she's so cute, she'd be really cool to hang out with as well. but that's celebrities for you. in your life but not, and I've got cool friends anyway, especially cos they'll dig MC Lars - Mr. Raven. posted by Keegan at 11:19 am ... 0 comments

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Tingly Songs

gotta stop listening to them. They're different for everyone, but Missy Higgins certainly, and Redgum - Only 19, and Goldfinger - 99 Red Balloons would certainly count. Live - Dolphins Cry does it, but it really doesn't deserve it. There was a patch in MC Lars - Mr. Raven, but that was only cos i wanted to make it tingly when I first heard it. Can't do it often, but I'm receptive at the moment. even Greenskeepers - Lotion got it a couple of months ago, but that was after Hawkers and before i moved out, so anything would've bloody worked.

The Pope's died so I'm trying to feel a little spiritual, but he was such a conservative old dotterer - and that i didn't swear there is how hard it is not to respect the dude. more about the office though. here's to a liberal latin - american pope in the next 15-20 days when the cardinals convene.

anyway, I'm writing today cos tomorrow's the 4th, and that makes it two years since I first went out with Ez, and two months since it ended. I don't feel too bad though, at least today. Cos I think I know at this point that I don't want to go back, and I'm not quite able to go forward without this baggage. Not sure if you're allowed baggage or not, but I don't think it's quite fair on anyone yet. plus I don't know whether I'm single or just a half-couple looking for my other half.

This is another example of me not doing homework and pining away like romeo just before he met juliet, goin "ah, roseline, she's fit. no wait, my love goes to... hey, she's alright, I reckon we could make tragic love together...". I should probable start going round to bars and saying hey I want a job dammit, the tips good here? cos the work at the track's only fun when it's busy, poppin off the tops of a dozen beers. I'll probably have to learn hour to pour a beer from a tap, well, many, fast. that's where a keg party'd come in handy... hmm... 21st... something to think about anyway. bar cruising would be fun too.

anyway, this little spiel has got most of the blues out. This house needs more real sunlight though, but whatcha gonna do? never mind, peace out y'all, thanks for reading. posted by Keegan at 10:40 am ... 0 comments

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