Thursday, September 30, 2004

To Sell Or Not To Sell...

With the rising trend of oil prices, it's finally getting closer to the point where it'd be more economical for me to go to uni by public transport. My beast of a holden commodore station wagon gets roughly 10/11km a litre, and uni's a 60k return trip, so it's been $6 or so per trip with prices around $1/L. Public transport on the other hand, would cost $8.50 a trip, and extended waiting periods would ensue. With some analysts predicting barrel prices to hit $70US by the end of the year, the cost of petrol would rise to about $1.61/L, or $9.65 a trip. I'd save roughly $50 a semester using public transport.

yet the main problem with this is the waiting times - I can lose up to two hours waiting for connections each day, or 6 hours every week that i could be earning $100 at my current job. If more of a focus was put on public transport, especially bringing a govt bus service to my region, then things would be different - it'd knock $4/trip off the cost of public transport. instead, the federal members of parliment servicing the region keep throwing money into widening the freeway, despite the unavoidable bottleneck at the end in the city.

Rising costs of Oil won't change much in consumption, as demand will remain while public transport is so inefficient. instead, it reduces consumer spending on goods other than energy, leading to recession. Greater government investment in public transport could see a longer lasting preventative measure than tax cuts - reducing the effect that fluctuacting oil prices has on the economy as use is reduced. that, and the various taxing methods suggested to curb SUVs...
posted by Keegan at 1:14 pm ... 0 comments

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Wednesday, September 29, 2004

US Energy Directions

Thanks to Disillusioned Kid for this Article. Kerry is certainly no Dove, but the US has never been without military action. the key point i'm trying to get across in the last Kerry post is on Oil Dependence. that the Iraq war sustained that dependence, and that Kerry will enable the move towards curbing US oil consumption to the point where it is no longer dependent on OPEC for economic growth. there's 50 years (approx.) on the Oil Clock, and it's counting down. remaining on the republican war path, securing oil reserves by force so change isn't necessary, can only give PNAC half the Century they were planning. Let the other players get hooked on oil - China would certainly grow with an oil industry, but by the time the oil runs out, it would be moving onto 'transition fuels' such as coal and LNG, while the US would have reached the Hydrogen Economy.

However, the choice will be made on domestic issues as always, so i'll just say I love my union, and if that makes me a pinko, well dammit, I'm prayin for the Ghost of Tom Joad.
posted by Keegan at 1:55 am ... 0 comments

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Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Oil - Can't Get Enough Of That Wonderful Stuff

Traders today broke through the US$50/Barrel mark last night, and there's little chance of the price coming down. Four key reasons why -

1; problems in Nigeria for Shell and Agip (ENI), evacuating non-essential staff as security troubles rise
2; Saudi incidents are picking up, flow could soon be disrupted
3; two pipelines (as of the report) had been sabotaged in Iraq, disrupting flow
4; Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico inhibiting production and transportation to the US.

It's apparrent that (Standard US. Govt. Disclaimer) "Though Iraq may have been invaded for reasons other than oil security, this was certainly a key objective of it" - troops were fighting to secure pipelines the day before 'Shock and Awe' began, and President Bush declared War. Oil Security in the region was a vital reason for moving into Iraq.

Now one has to wonder, "What Security?" - another record breaking oil trade, reserves dropping to just over 270 Million Barrels, and no guarantee of OPEC suppy, with even Saudi Arabia's 1 Million Barrels/Day of increased production potential unable to meet the losses wrought by the other incidents, especially as Saudi Arabia faces the risks of greater violence.

The current Rublican 'Big Stick' foreign policy isn't paying off for the US. And though supply is falling, demand is still increasing in the US, as no 'conservation' efforts have taken place since Jimmy Carter. not just Republicans to Blame for that one, but they've had 16 years out of 24 to reduce consumption, and it's just not the direction they want to take. Reduce consumption, and growth, for a decade or so and allow alternative energies to catch up? not while china's growing, and especially not leaving the middle east to anyone else - the EU was set to gain for an Iraq with Saddam in power.
posted by Keegan at 11:44 am ... 0 comments

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Monday, September 27, 2004

The Amonnia Improves The Flavour

now it's probably something I should investigate before ranting about it, but recent studies seem to confirm my feelings on 'low-tar' or 'light' cigarettes, seeing as i sell so many every day. there is little difference because with a 'light' cigarette, the smoker sucks harder to get the same fix of nicotine. I kinda feel this from my own experiences with the death sticks - from smoking someone's 4mg, and then trying 1mgs, you just suck harder on the 1mgs, or you can't get anything out of them and they're just there for decoration.

as Bill Hicks said, isn't it weird how the two drugs that do absolutely nothing for you, nicotine and alcohol, are the only ones that are legal?

what about low-THC marijuana cigarettes instead? calm your nerves, rather than makin ya so jumpy you just gotta have another cigarette now before you kill someone... stressed out at work? come back from a 'doobie break' mellow, but not so stoned you can only giggle at the walls. i know the vibe at the supermarket could do with a bit of jamaican flavour.

anyway, the key thing in this is that ammonia, which the US FDA claims enhances the effects of nicotine, is meant to 'improve the flavour' according to the cigarette companies. we all know how we get ammonia right? a distillate of urine. mmm... tasty. And it cleans the toilet bowl too...
posted by Keegan at 6:56 am ... 0 comments

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Monday, September 20, 2004

Why Kerry Matters

I was thinking about the US elections, and how some people think it doesn't really matter who gets in, because the republicans and democrats are the same thing nowadays, just the tools of big business, much the same as in Australia, where labor and liberal are seen as the same.

But what makes the difference is foreign policy. Looking at how much PNAC is bashing Kerry in its press releases, I think I understand why. Under a republican government, America is aggressive in its foreign policy, eg., the war in Iraq - while the rhetoric certainly denies that oil was the reason - gave the US the potential of added security of production. By increasing oil security, the US becomes ever more dependent on oil for growth, bigger SUVs, more pollution, and in 50 years time, or thereabouts, the juice runs out, and the US hits the wall and leaves the world to the powers of Europe and China. 4 more years of Bush will allow this to happen.

Kerry, on the other hand, by being 'weak' on foreign policy, i.e. not jumping into every quagmire that happens, could see a world where oil production is cut drastically by radical islamicists, and China deals with these Fatwahs, ignoring human rights abuses (they've got enough of that at home, just like Australia - what kids in mandatory detention centers?) and then the US cuts back consumption drastically, and China becomes dependent on oil. Rather than leapfrogging technology as china will have to now unless it can get its hands on a portion of the daily production levels, China will be the one to crash and burn 50 years down the track.

What happens in every election matters, weather for the next four years, or for the next 50. We're still in a world where America favoured communism over fascism in ww2 - what if they'd sided with the Germans? I'm not a US citizen - all i can do is try to convince you that a world where Kerry wins is a better one. America might have it's day of glory now, under bush, but that would only be a day. Kerry could potentially set up the situation so that America survives the fall of oil, and not only survives, but dominates the world from that day.

land of sweet liberty...
posted by Keegan at 7:11 am ... 2 comments

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